In 2010 the whole world will be talking. Discussing everything on many different platforms. And now that new media has shifted to real- time the speed of those discussions accelerate…greatly.

In the middle of December Google announced that real time results will be displayed from Twitter, Facebook and MySpace. This means that you, literally, can follow an event or issue on a minute-by-minute basis.

Let’s go back and look at the Motrin situation. In about 24 hours after that television commercial broke, mommy bloggers were aggregating in mass. And over that weekend while the Motrin execs were on the golf course, the mommy bloggers were scaling the walls of the corporate castle. On Monday morning, the execs were being greeted with a crisis. The great unwashed were inside the castle walls.

Again, that happened in 24 hours. That will be nothin’ compared to what will happen in real time. Take 24 hours and bring it down to 2. Here’s an fictitious example:

Let’s say that an outdoor company makes baby clothing and a Mom sees that a rash has developed on the back of her child. After a couple of minutes of investigation she determines that it is the baby shirt that is causing the problem. Onto Twitter she goes.

Tweed: My baby has a rash on her back. Has anybody seen this? Think it could be the BRAND shirt.

( 1 minute later.) Response Tweet: OMG! I had that same think happen two days ago. And my baby wore that brand.

( 90 seconds after the first Tweet) Another Response Tweet: Me too. My child has a rash and we have the same shirt!

In the real-time world…right here is where the BRAND needs to both catch the conversation, and react to it. The BRAND can not wait until somebody sees it on Google Alert because Google Alert may wait an hour before posting. And then it gets circulated within the company, and perhaps a day passes before action is considered, or taken.

Ian Capstick writing in Media Style Blog writes . “Don’t get me wrong. I use Alerts. They are useful. Helpful even.  But it’s important to note the system is unrefined, often missing data and is only one part of a comprehensive listening program you should be undertaking. If Google Alerts are your primary online listening tool; you are missing information.”

Back to the rash incident. So, a whole day goes by while a BRAND gathers information, that info is distributed, decision-makers engage and action is finally taken. The Rash Incident may have grown into an Issue…or even a Crisis. And if a Crisis…a recall may be the result.

Why? Because in two hours…a hundred Moms might be tuned into and engaging in the conversation. And within 3 hours a thousand Moms might be in the conversation. 24 hours…well. I just don’t know how big it could get.

Andy Beal writing in his blog, Seeking Alpha, believes…

“Twitter serves as a real-time information network powered by people around the world discovering what’s happening and sharing the news…In the new year, Twitter will begin supporting a billion search queries a day. It will be delivering several billion tweets per hour to users around the world.”

Several billion tweets per hour.

And Google and Bing? Well, Google is handling around 300,000 to 500,000 million searches a day.

Google and Bing can not keep up with the volume of Twitter. Beal further reports, “and that is why Google ‘alerts’ for breaking news items show up 10 – 45 minutes earlier on Twitter or monitoring packages/systems.”

So, there is new velocity in social media.

With real-time search…brands have even less time.

The search must be thorough. The response quick. And a strategy in place to handle Incidents so they do not become Issues.

All in, almost, real-time.

Recently I wrote that the distribution of information had always been a funnel but it had now turned right side up.  The mouth of the funnel is wide open and consumers are publishing because it is easy and they have opinions.  The good brands are building these funnels, advertising their communication portals (Facebook,etc) , attracting consumers, collecting opinions, engaging, finding their voices and constructively inviting/channeling consumers further down into the brand storyline. During this process the brands are quietly measuring their effectiveness, learning, and becoming much better communicators as consumers elect to engage more deeply.  They are collecting excellent data on Influencers, athletes and active consumers as the information travels down the funnel.

In recent conversations I have been painfully reminded that many me-too brands in the Outdoor Industry are not building solid funnels but building buckets with holes and no bottom.

How? Well, these companies crow that they have a Web Site, Facebook Page, are on Twitter, YouTube, and Flickr.

And consumers are initially engaging…entering the bucket. But they are not directed or invited to go anywhere.  They  just sit in the bucket, quickly draining to the bottom…without direction.

And then an analyst from Channel Signal investigates. We find that they had good sign-up for the Facebook page, a decent  following on Twitter, and that YouTube and Flickr had good traffic, but that it fell off quickly.

Why did the traffic fall off?  Because these companies did not allocate the resources to engage. Employees were not assigned to respond to consumers, and direct them to the next point of interest. Consumer questions and comments went unanswered. They were not invited to go to Facebook or the Website, or YouTube, or a User Group. And because there was no natural momentum of engagement, no funnel, consumers were stranded and then took the easy way out….quickly out the bottom of the bucket. They were invited to the conversation and then nobody talked to them.

So they didn’t stick around. And  they took all of their knowledge about the brand with them.

A study by the Chief Marketing Council shows that 38 percent of the 480 executives in the industries surveyed say their companies have no programs in place to track or propagate positive word of mouth among customers. And only 29 percent rate highly their ability to handle and resolve customer problems or complaints

All that money to make products that attract consumers. All that money to sell into retail. All that money for advertising to attract consumers. All that money to set up conversation channels.  And then the pay-off…consumers responding online by engaging in one of the channels. And…

And silence. All that wonderful potential data about consumers and what they like and don’t like about your brand and products…out the bottom of the bucket. And all those potential Influencers, gone.

Never to be captured again.

Say goodbye to measuring ROI.

Recently Outdoor Retailer brought out some cost-cutting measures designed to ease the price pressure for manufacturers and traditional retailers. Attendance at the shows has been dragging. So booth pricing was cut along with some other stuff. It’s a start, but it does not address the challenge.

Here is the challenge.

The distribution system has changed. The minute manufacturers agreed to sell online then consumers became the 800 pound gorilla in the distribution system. They wrote product reviews. They expressed opinions on blogs. And they twittered about their purchases. They now are directly in the loop and they like it.

Traditional retailers are still players in the distribution system, but not the only player. And that is what Outdoor Retailer apparently fails to understand.

Here’s the line-up in the distribution system:

1. Traditional Retailers

2. Online Retailers

3. Small online “sellers” that are in the shadows…selling product that manufacturers may not even know about. (More about that in another blog.)

4. Manufacturers selling goods online.

5. Large Product Review Sites…these invite consumers to review, then publish to the public with relish including online links to retailers offering the product.

6. Platforms that offer a mix of brick and mortar and online.

Five of the six players in the system offer feedback loops for consumers to respond with a product review. Millions are doing so.

84% of consumers list online product reviews as key to their purchasing decision reports SIA. And I have tons of back-up research pointing to about the same thing.

Until OR addresses the consumer by opening up the Show to them for the last day, all other cost-saving measures that they employ is window dressing.

Why? Because OR is about cost-effectively selling and buying product. (We’re all in one place.) It is not about saving money. And more product can be sold and more on-the-sport feedback received when the 800 pound gorilla is in the room.

And if OR doesn’t address the changes in the distribution system, then manufacturers will be forced to.

What does that mean?

Money away from Outdoor Retailer, which will now be known as the “traditional trade show”, and money into an outdoor consumer trade show that will grow so rapidly it will make your head spin.

The last day of the OR Show is basically a throwaway. Many retailers are gone. Senior management is gone. Those still at the show are shopping for discounts and all are just waiting for three o’clock to break down the booths. Let’s open the Show to the public for the final day. Invite all of the bloggers, the influencers, and the public. Charge them 5 bucks at the door to see the new stuff. And then watch what happens. 

It will be jammed. Traditional media will cover the event, in advance, due to the newsworthiness of admitting the public.  Booths will be crowded with consumers asking questions. Athletes will be on hand to talk with the public and pose for pictures.  Bloggers and influencers will be asking questions, taking notes, and preparing to write reports as soon as they get home. And traditional media will be doing reports live from the show floor. The energy of Day 1 and 2 will not only have been restored, but doubled. 

And what about the retailers? They should be smart about this. Take the opportunity to invite all of their customers to the show for this final day.  Will customers get on a plane and get to the Show? Doesn’t matter. The very fact that retailers are inviting them as their guests on the Show Floor will only increase customer loyalty. And why not take the five top customers to the show as guests of that retailer? Work out the travel and lodging in advance. Make it work. Then take pictures of the customers on the Floor. Put it on the web site. And do you think those customers will talk about their experiences when they got back home?  Oh, and one more thing. Work a deal with the brands so that you can bring back some new product so all of your customers can get a sneak peak at next year’s offering. Make the OR Show a storewide event. 

Buy in from the companies will be automatic to this public day. Why?  Because it is their chance to talk directly with consumers. And consumers are direct customers because companies are now selling to them online. Influential bloggers should be identified in advance and personally invited to the booth for a product line review. Companies should know which of their best retailers are bringing guests to the booth and senior management should be on hand to greet them. Management, reps, pr, product development and marketing should be engaged all day long. Why? Because this is monster leverage. A company can create more marketing momentum in one day then in the previous six months. 

And OR? Its pr effort ought to be in high-gear pre public day. And then it should have the common sense to get out of the way. Let it happen. And then post public day, report the results. All good for OR. 

So, it’s time for all of us to face reality. Retailers can own the show for the first three days. On day four, open the doors and let the great unwashed in. The time for exclusivity is over. Over. The time for inclusion, openness, and a new business model is here. Every one of us will benefit.

Let’s start with this. Many of us have been going to OR for 20 years or more. A lot of business has been done. Thousands of relationships established. And many good times had. The Show remains relatively healthy despite the economy’s downturn. 

Now, let’s address the new situation. Winter Market was not full. Tens of thousands of square feet lay vacant. Everybody, even the best friends of the Show, knew that the announced 5% decrease in attendance was a joke. 

Many retailers did not come to Salt Lake City due to travel costs, and the simple fact that they don’t need to come to the show. Why? Reps will gladly come to their stores and present the lines. In fact, reps have been on the road showing the lines to both retailers who attended the Show and retailers who didn’t. 

Media is also cutting back so coverage is thinner. 

Consolidation is another force at work. The larger manufacturers continue to buy the smaller brands in hopes of filling holes in their product offerings. Often the larger manufacturer is seen as not authentic in a certain area, and thus the bucks fly.                                                                                                                

Retailers are also in the act, buying up smaller retailers to either eliminate competition or expand into other geographic areas, or both.

What does this consolidation mean? It means a chance for manufacturers to cut down on booth space. It also means a chance to scale back on the number of people going to the show, which both brands and retailers are doing.

Just last month that very conversation about booth space took place at one company that had purchased a smaller brand. Should we consolidate into our booth, but give them their own identity? Or should we continue to have that brand autonomous and have them keep their booth space?  Well, dollars and cents will settle that debate.  And that probably means consolidation into one booth. 

Another company opted out of WSA. It figured that each rep appointment with retailers would cost the company $1,000. No way to recoup those costs. 

Trek and Specialized have pulled out of Interbike. Cannondale did too and used the savings to bring retailers to the factory for several days of hands-on product introductions, business discussions in a calm setting, and entertainment. 

One of the largest line items in any manufacturer’s budget is Outdoor Retailer. OR charges a lot. And it says it delivers a lot. And it does. Show starts on time. Runs smoothly. Great programs. So far, the value falls on the side of OR. However, during a recession hosting a smaller group of retailers and presenting empty space or the perception of empty space means trouble. That leads to further examination of the return on investment. With a dwindling return comes manufacturer and retailer defections and that eventually will lead to failure, ala NSGA and the Super Show. 

OR needs new excitement. New energy. It needs to update and expand the business model and increase the return on investment…for everyone. 

We present that idea next time on Channel Signal.

                                             See the Changes                                            

 She has seen me changing

It ain’t easy rearranging

And it gets harder as you get older,

Farther away as you get closer.

Words and Music by Stephen Stills

I’ve had people contact me about what “Selling to Ourselves” means. So I thought I would elaborate as it pertains to the outdoor recreational industry, and then address the changes that are necessary. 

Selling to ourselves means:

• Manufacturers selling to the same retailers in the distribution system.
• Retailers buying from the same larger brands as a safety net during a recession.
• Brands employing the same marketing tools to reach the same outdoor enthusiasts.
• Retailers marketing to their tried and true set of customers.              

 What happens then?

• No new retailers (brick-mortar & online)  entering the outdoor recreational space.
• Fewer new innovative small manufacturers. Money is hard to get, expensive and tough when the market isn’t growing.    
• New consumers are not attracted to the market because it is shrinking
• Interested new consumers have fewer places to buy.
• New consumers have less choice when they do shop.